Climate change is reshaping where suitable habitat exists, forcing many species to move in order to survive. For decades, conservation planners have recognized that connected landscapes can help wildlife respond to these shifts by allowing individuals and populations to reach areas with more favorable climates. As a result, climate connectivity has become an increasingly important consideration when identifying conservation priorities and designing resilient protected area networks.
Wu, Z., Wang, J., Wu, H., Dai, W. and Wang, Z. 2026. Warming erodes climate connectivity for terrestrial vertebrates. Nature Climate Change 16: 728-736. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02658-1
Much of the work on climate connectivity has focused on mapping pathways between today’s climate conditions and those expected in the future. However, these approaches often assume that those pathways will remain effective as temperatures continue to rise. Less attention has been given to whether climate corridors themselves may become less capable of supporting species movement under increasingly severe warming.
A recent study examined this question by evaluating how well climate connectivity is expected to function for terrestrial vertebrates under future climate scenarios. Rather than simply mapping potential corridors, the researchers developed an approach that measures how effectively connected landscapes allow species to reach climatically suitable areas as conditions change. They combined global climate projections, landscape connectivity analyses, and species distribution data for over 30,000 species of amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals to assess changes in climate connectivity through the year 2080.
The results suggest that climate connectivity could deteriorate substantially as warming intensifies. Under scenarios exceeding 4°C of global warming, almost 80% of the world’s land area is projected to see declines in the effectiveness of climate connectivity between 2061-2080. As suitable habitat becomes increasingly fragmented, many species may have fewer opportunities to track shifting climates, increasing the likelihood of local isolation and biodiversity loss. The study also identified regions where climate instability and declining connectivity occur simultaneously, highlighting areas where conservation interventions may be especially urgent.
These findings reinforce the message that protecting habitat alone is unlikely to be sufficient if climate-driven movement pathways continue to degrade. Conservation planning will increasingly need to consider not only where corridors exist today, but whether they are likely to remain functional under future climate conditions.
Prioritizing landscapes that maintain long-term climate connectivity could improve the resilience of protected area networks and help advance biodiversity goals such as the global 30×30 initiative. Although the study presents a global assessment, its framework could also help guide regional planning by identifying locations where maintaining or restoring connectivity would provide the greatest benefits as climates continue to change.
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