Protected areas across the globe act as networks to connect and conserve species and habitats. While we know these networks benefit biodiversity in the current climate, it’s unclear whether they will remain effective under the climate of the future.
If species are forced to shift ranges in order to track preferred habitat to new locations (i.e. climate analogs), they will need protected areas already in place to act as stepping stones to those new locations. Without this connectivity, some species might find themselves unable to move. But is the current protected area network connected enough to serve its purpose under future climate conditions?
Parks, S.A., Holsinger, L.M., Abatzoglou, J.T., Littlefield, C.E. and Zeller, K.A. 2023. Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate‐induced range shifts. Global Change Biology 29: 2681-2696.
A recent analysis quantifies this climate connectivity at a global scale, and asks whether today’s terrestrial protected area network will be successful in the future. Using least-cost path modeling to delineate movement routes, four metrics of climate connectivity were calculated: distance to protected analogs, exposure to humans, exposure to dissimilar climates, and percent with no protected analogs. These were then combined to determine the overall potential for climate connectivity failure across all protected areas.
The large-scale analysis reveals that, of the 17 million km2 of protected lands in the study, 58% show climate connectivity failure under 2°C of warming, many of which have no protected climate analog. When looked at individually, 67% of the almost 30,000 protected area units across the globe show climate connectivity failure under 2°C of warming. Countries with the highest failure include Kuwait, Qatar, Czechia, Hungary, and Lithuania, and countries with the lowest failure include Tajikistan, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and Chile.
Given this lack of climate connectivity, it’s unlikely that current protected area networks can act as stepping stones for species undergoing range shifts. This has broad implications for the increasing global efforts aimed at expanding protected areas through the 30×30 initiative, and for management strategies overall. Encouraging cooperation across administrative borders can improve the connectivity of the overall network, particularity when that cooperation crosses international borders. Strategies such as assisted migration may need to be considered more carefully if species are less able to move on their own.
While limiting climate warming to under 2°C would benefit species the most, alternative strategies need to account for the potential impacts of shifting habitats. Biodiversity within the global protected area network is likely to suffer unless greater climate connectivity can be achieved.
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