Meeting the global goal of protecting 30% of land and sea by 2030 will require conserving vast areas of remaining forests, many of which also serve as critical habitat connections that allow wildlife and ecological processes to move across landscapes. These connected forests are essential for maintaining biodiversity, storing carbon, and helping species adapt to climate change.
Yet one of the most persistent arguments against expanding protected areas is that conservation comes with enormous economic costs, particularly for industries that rely on timber production. Most previous estimates have calculated these costs by adding up the value of timber that could no longer be harvested from each protected forest, assuming that every lost hectare represents a direct economic loss. This approach largely ignores how markets respond when supply changes, potentially overstating the true costs of large-scale forest conservation.
Nepal, P., Waldron, A., Prestemon, J.P., Gopalakrishna, T. and Jung, M. 2026. Economic costs of global forest protection may be overstated. Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-73569-0
Recent research takes a different approach by examining how global markets adjust when forests are protected under 30×30 scenarios. Instead of simply summing local opportunity costs, the study uses a partial equilibrium economic model that incorporates changes in prices, production, trade, and consumption across 180 countries. The researchers evaluated three possible strategies for protecting an additional 471 to 863 million hectares of forest while meeting a global 30% protection target.
The results challenge conventional assumptions. Although the 30×30 scenarios reduced harvestable forest area by 6.4% – 15.6% and lowered roundwood production by 0.7% – 1.8%, the global forestry sector’s net output value increased by 1.5% – 5.4% by 2060. Over the 2025-2060 period, this represents cumulative gains of approximately $192 billion – $671 billion. The increase occurs because reduced timber supply raises prices more than enough to offset lower production, creating higher net returns for producers.
The benefits were not evenly distributed. Between 72% – 87% of countries experienced gains depending on the conservation scenario, with many African and European nations seeing positive outcomes. Countries with relatively little remaining forest, including Malaysia and Australia under the biodiversity-focused scenario, experienced substantial losses because protecting their last forested areas removed a larger share of harvestable land. Sensitivity analyses also showed that the overall conclusion remained robust under a range of assumptions about production costs and price responses.
For connectivity conservation and 30×30 implementation, these findings suggest that the economic barriers to protecting large, connected forest landscapes may be lower than previously believed. By accounting for market feedbacks rather than simply adding local opportunity costs, policymakers may find that ambitious conservation strategies can support biodiversity, climate goals, and ecological connectivity without imposing the large producer losses that have often been assumed. The study also highlights the importance of designing international policies that recognize both the global economic benefits of connected forest protection and the need to support countries that bear a disproportionate share of the costs.
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