Forests are disappearing at an unprecedented pace, with forest fragmentation a major concern for biodiversity conservation. While scientists have long known that deforestation alters temperature and rainfall, less is understood about how forest loss influences meteorological drought across different climates. Understanding whether clearing forests systematically intensifies drought, and through what mechanisms, is essential for climate adaptation, water security, and landscape-scale conservation planning.
Li, X., Wu, T., Xia, K., Tang, H., Wang, X., Wang, S., Lyne, V. and Zu, Y. 2026. Forest loss intensifies meteorological drought in more than half of Earth’s climate zones. Science Advances 12(2): eadv7998. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adv7998
New research aims to better understand how forest fragmentation and loss impacts drought across climates. Researchers analyzed nearly 3,700 paired forest loss and intact forest sites across boreal, temperate, and tropical regions from 2001 to 2020. By comparing drought trends in cleared areas with nearby unchanged forests under similar climate conditions, researchers were able to isolate the specific influence of forest loss.
Their results show that forest loss intensified meteorological drought in more than half of affected regions worldwide. The strongest effects occurred in boreal forests, where drought intensification was more than three times greater than in tropical zones. In these high-latitude systems, forest clearing increased surface reflectivity and reduced evapotranspiration, suppressing convective rainfall. Over two decades, drought prevalence in boreal regions rose by 5%, with some drought signals persisting in some areas for up to four years following forest loss.
Tropical regions showed a more complex response. In tropical savanna climates, such as parts of Central Africa and southeastern Brazil, forest loss reduced evapotranspiration and precipitation while increasing land surface temperatures, leading to moderate but sustained drought intensification.
In contrast, some tropical rainforest margins, including parts of the Amazon fringe, exhibited greater resilience, likely due to high baseline rainfall and strong moisture recycling. Temperate regions showed no consistent large-scale drought intensification, possibly reflecting mixed land-use patterns and reforestation efforts in countries such as the United States and China.
Across climate zones, the mechanism was consistent: forest loss altered surface energy balance and weakened atmospheric moisture recycling. Reduced evapotranspiration limited the transfer of water vapor to the atmosphere, while changes in light reflection modified how much solar energy was absorbed at the surface. Together, these shifts decreased precipitation and, in some regions, increased temperatures, amplifying drought risk.
The implications are significant for connectivity. Forest loss not only removes critical habitat patches, but it also disrupts the land-atmosphere feedbacks that help stabilize regional water cycles. As forests become fragmented, their collective capacity to recycle moisture declines, increasing vulnerability to cascading disturbances such as wildfire.
Protecting intact forests, restoring degraded lands with native species, and strengthening ecological corridors can help reconnect fragmented landscapes and reduce drought risk by maintaining water cycles. In this way, maintaining connectivity supports not only biodiversity, but also long-term climate resilience and hydrological stability.
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