Across low-lying coastlines, sea level rise is reshaping the future of natural ecosystems and the human communities that depend on them. As tidal flooding intensifies, many coastal habitats will no longer be able to persist where they currently exist.
Mangroves, salt marshes, coastal forests, and other natural communities must move inland to survive, but development, roads, and altered land uses often block these transitions. Without intentional planning, rising seas can sever ecological connections between coastal and inland areas, leading to habitat loss, reduced ecosystem services, and fewer options for climate adaptation. Identifying and protecting inland pathways for ecosystem movement has become a central challenge for conservation planning in coastal regions.
Bohnett, E., O’Brien, M., Noss, R., Doyle, L., Young, P.J., Goren, A. and Hoctor, T.S. 2025. Sea level rise escape planning for Florida’s coastal ecosystems. Discover Conservation 2:40. DOI: 10.1007/s44353-025-00064-w.
New research addresses that challenge by examining how coastal ecosystems can maintain connectivity as sea levels rise, using Florida as a case example. The researchers focused on identifying landscape-scale corridors that would allow coastal habitats to migrate inland over time, while accounting for land use, elevation, and future flooding risk.
Rather than focusing on individual species, the analysis considers entire coastal ecosystems and their potential movement across the landscape. The approach integrates spatial data on natural land cover, projected inundation, and landscape permeability to map areas where inland migration is most feasible. Two complementary models – the Florida Ecological Greenways Network (FEGN) Coastal to Inland Connectivity Model and the Integrated Coastal Connectivity Model – were compared to better understand how different assumptions influence corridor identification.
The results show that agreement between the two models was as low as 59% in some regions, emphasizing the influence of model choice and fine-scale data on results. In both approaches, large portions of Florida’s coastline have limited options for inland ecosystem movement due to development and fragmented land use.
However, the analysis also identifies specific regions where connected natural landscapes still provide viable pathways for inland migration. These areas often overlap with existing conservation lands but also extend into unprotected private and working lands that could play a critical role in maintaining connectivity.
In a broader context, this research provides a detailed example of how connectivity planning can be used proactively to address climate-driven change rather than reacting after habitats are lost. While grounded in Florida’s unique geography, the framework and insights are widely applicable to coastal regions around the world facing similar challenges.
By identifying where inland migration corridors exist and where they are most at risk, this work provides a roadmap for conservation organizations, planners, and policymakers seeking to align climate adaptation, land protection, and connectivity goals. For regions pursuing 30×30 and other landscape-scale conservation initiatives, the study underscores the importance of looking beyond static protected areas and planning for dynamic, connected landscapes that can adapt as conditions change.
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