Researchers think climate change will shrink mink links – which stinks. Whimsical as it sounds, European mink (Mustela lutreola) are one of Europe’s most endangered mammals. Thanks to a combination of disease, habitat fragmentation, and invasive competition, the current range of European mink is 85% of what it was less than two centuries ago.
As climate change alters European landscapes, European mink will need help maintaining habitat connectivity. But its invasive competitor, the American mink (Neovison vison), complicates the landscape. How can managers protect the European mink without enabling the spread of American mink? American mink, introduced to Europe via the fur trade, is bigger, more aggressive, and more of a generalist, making it a strong competitor for resources and territory.
Goicolea, T., Lewison, R.L., Mateo-Sánchez, M.C. and Jennings, M.K. 2023. Dynamic connectivity analyses to inform management of the invasive American mink and its native competitor, the European mink. Biological Invasions. DOI: 10.1007/s10530-023-03128-x.
A recent study undertaken in Spain sought to describe future habitat dynamics of both the European and American mink in order to select priority sites and understand how climate change will impact these species differently. Researchers used species occurrence data collected throughout Spain for both species, as well as climatological data from 1985-2010. They also utilized future climate projections under three possible emission scenarios (low, medium, and high) until 2100.
The researchers combined landscape suitability measurements (land use, tree cover density, distance from water) with climate variables to calculate habitat suitability for different time periods and emissions scenarios. Since mink are sensitive to fine scale habitat structure, fine resolution variables were also included in the analysis. All this information was used to create predictive species distribution, habitat quality, and connectivity models.
Those models were combined to classify the landscape into overlap, expansion, and low-risk zones. The overlap zone, which contains potential habitat for both species, should be managed most intensively. In the expansion zone, possible European mink habitat is within dispersal distance of American mink habitat, and managers should focus on preventing spread. In the low-risk zone, overlap between habitats is unlikely. These zones can inform future conservation and management plans.
The study also found that across emissions scenarios, habitat will decrease for both species. However, drastic changes in habitat for American mink will happen first (in 20-50 years) while European mink habitat loss will occur most dramatically towards the end of the century. Suitable habitat loss will be proportionately worse for European mink (72%) compared to American mink (41%).
As habitats shrink, connectivity will also decrease in a similar pattern (most dramatically for American mink first, then for European mink). The model showed an average 32% decrease in connectivity for American mink and an 80% decrease in connectivity for European mink. While European mink habitat patches will consistently shrink, changes in American mink patch size will likely be more variable. This may provide an opportunity to control American mink while their populations are contracted.
Climate change at the scale predicted to occur over the next century will seriously impact habitats, even for effective, invasive generalists like the American mink. The prognosis is worse for the habitat and connectivity of endangered species like the European mink. The methods used in this study – modeling future habitat suitability and connectivity for native and invasive species side by side – can also be applied to other species and landscapes. Knowing how connectivity dynamics will play out gives managers a road map to face these challenges and better protect threatened species.
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