In response to biodiversity loss, scientists have called for the protection of well-connected systems of protected areas covering 30 to 50% of the planet. However, as climate change drives shifts in species, conservation plans based on current biodiversity patterns will become less effective.
The Nature Conservancy, along with partners, collaboratively developed and mapped a conservation network for the conterminous United States designed to represent all habitats, while anticipating and facilitating changes in species composition. The network is based on principles of representation, resilience, connectivity, and recognized biodiversity value, with each factor mapped in a way that anticipates climate change.
Anderson, M.G., Clark, M., Olivero, A.P., Barnett, A.R., Hall, K.R., Cornett, M.W., Ahlering, M., Schindel, M., Unnasch, B., Schloss, C. and Cameron, D.R. 2023. A resilient and connected network of sites to sustain biodiversity under a changing climate. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120: e2204434119.
As droughts, rising temperatures, and other climate impacts threaten to destabilize natural areas around the world, plants and animals will need to move and rearrange in order to survive. The Resilient and Connected Network (RCN) integrates connectivity at two scales, the site scale and the regional scale.
At the site scale in the Resilient Sites analysis, local connectedness estimates the degree of fragmentation and strength of barriers that create resistance to movement. A highly connected landscape promotes resilience by allowing species to move through the landscape and find suitable microclimates where they can persist. In this study, we calculated local connectedness using a resistant kernel analysis by measuring the amount and configuration of human-created barriers like major roads, development, energy infrastructure, and industrial farming and forestry land in a 3 km radius.
At a regional scale, the Connectivity and Climate flow component of the RCN maps the gradual movement of populations in response to changes in the climate. Over time, climate flow results in range shifts and the formation of novel communities. We measured climate flow using a continuous wall-to-wall model of landscape permeability based on anthropogenic resistance (resistance to movement caused by human modification) and climatic gradients (upslope, northward and riparian).
The model identifies 3 categories of flow. Diffuse flow areas have moderate flow, and are in highly natural settings where species have many movement options. Concentrated flow areas are places where movements will accumulate or be channeled through a pinch point. Lastly there are areas of blocked or low flow in which movement is difficult. Local Connectedness is a component of the resilient sites. The Resilient Sites, overlayed with the Connectivity and Climate Flow, and areas of current biodiversity create the Resilient and Connected Network.
The RCN is being used to inform land-acquisition and management decisions by The Nature Conservancy, many state and federal agencies, and hundreds of land trusts.
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