The global conservation movement to conserve 30% of land- and seascapes by 2030 – recently reaffirmed with the CBD Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework – requires a large-scale vision. For North America, this includes mapping out priority areas for protection and identifying how they could be integrated as a connected network at a continent-wide scale.
But for 30×30 goals to be effective, this protected area network must contain landscapes that support biodiversity under both current and future climate scenarios. This means considering climate-wise connectivity in land planning, and protecting regions that will harbor diversity well into the future, often called climate refugia.
Saunders, S.P., Grand, J., Bateman, B.L., Meek, M., Wilsey, C.B., Forstenhaeusler, N., Graham, E., Warren, R. and Price, J. 2023. Integrating climate‐change refugia into 30 by 30 conservation planning in North America. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 21: 77-84.
A new analysis places 30×30 goals in the context of protecting natural areas as climate refugia. Researchers looked at the amount of undeveloped land across North America that is projected to provide climate refugia for terrestrial biodiversity (based on species distribution models of over 130,000 species), and how much of it is currently protected.
They then looked at how well that spatial network benefits seven broad groups: amphibians, birds, fungi, invertebrates, mammals, plants, and reptiles. They also calculated the proportion of unprotected refugia that could help reach 30×30 targets under future warming scenarios, and which of these areas would be highest priority under 2°C and 3°C warming scenarios.
The resulting maps show that less than 15% of areas most likely to facilitate species persistence under climate change are currently protected across North America: 5–14% in Mexico, 4–10% in Canada, and 2–6% in the U.S. There are multiple regions that could be added to the protected area network and function as refugia, but only if warming is held to 2°C or less. Above that, most refugia are limited to higher elevations and latitudes, creating a network with less connectivity and more challenges for species with low mobility such as plants and fungi.
This framework adds to the growing body of tools and research that aim to give specific recommendations about which land parcels could be added to the protected area network across North America. These findings can help managers and policy-makers make better decisions to achieve 30×30 goals in the context of climate change. As a result, conservation planning at the national and continent scales can be more effective at protecting and connecting biodiversity for the future.
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