Rapid climate change is altering ecosystem functions for wildlife. In response, many species will disperse to more suitable habitats by migrating northward or to higher elevations. For vulnerable species, or species endemic to a specific region, migration may not be an option. Identifying species that are the most vulnerable to climate change and predicting how their ranges will decrease, increase, or shift to new locations will help prioritize conservation areas for protection. Strategic conservation planning could help assist species migration by maintaining or creating important dispersal corridors for wildlife.
Zhu, G., Papes, M., Armsworth, P.R., and Gian, X. 2022. Climate change vulnerability of terrestrial vertebrates in a major refuge and dispersal corridor in North America. Diversity and Distributions 28(6): 1227-1241.
The Appalachian forest ecoregion of the eastern U.S. is highly diverse and supports a large number of endemic species, making it a priority conservation area. The north-south orientation of the topography in this area creates a natural wildlife corridor, and supports large-scale connectivity. However, biodiversity in this region is under threat as the effects of climate change increase and important habitat is lost through land development.
To better understand species vulnerability to climate change in the area, scientists in a recent study investigated the effects of climate change on regional biodiversity and determined which locations will likely experience the greatest increase or decrease of species richness under future climates.
Ecological niche models were used to estimate range shifts of 258 different species under short-term (2022-2040) and long-term (2022-2080) climate change scenarios. Species included 75 amphibians, 89 birds, 54 mammals and 40 reptiles, and were identified as a conservation concern by state, federal, and multistate agencies. Changes in community turnover and spatial changes in species richness were then calculated for the different taxonomic groups to identify future biodiversity hotspots and potential areas for concerted conservation.
The results reveal that climate change is likely to reduce the range size of amphibians and mammals in Appalachian forests, while birds and reptiles are more likely to expand their range size under long-term climate scenarios. Additionally, climatically suitable habitat is expected to increase for small-range reptiles, and decline for small-range mammals under long-term climate change. Within the Appalachian forest ecoregion, the Blue Ridge, Cumberland Plateau, and the southern Appalachian subregion will remain as biodiversity hotspots under all climate and dispersal scenarios, although most species are predicted to shift their present range northward and to higher elevations within these areas.
This research highlights the wide-ranging effects of short- and long-term climate change on species dispersal, and provides insight on where future biodiversity hotspots will occur. One key takeaway is the importance of tracking short-term trends in order to better understand the initial response of wildlife to changing climate conditions. In this way, species movement can be anticipated, and immediate action can be taken to assist migration to climatically suitable habitats of the future.
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