Global climate change is predicted to have major impacts in the Arctic. Changes such as melting sea ice and rapidly rising temperatures not only alter habitat composition, but local and regional connectivity as well. As altered snow and ice patterns necessitate range shifts, some species may find it difficult or even impossible to access routes that lead to more suitable habitats.
However, changes in the land- and seascape aren’t always negative. Warming temperatures could also lead to an expansion of desirable habitat, or to greater connectivity of fragmented patches that were previously isolated. Several recent studies predict that there could be both positive and negative outcomes when it comes to rising temperatures in the far north.

Arctic warming may lead to various outcomes, such as a disruption of sea ice dispersal corridors for Svalbard reindeer (top), an increase in preferred shrub habitat for Alaskan moose (middle), and an increase in lake trout abundance in Canadian waters (bottom). Credits: Bjoertvedt/Ryan Hagerty USFWS/Florian Fuchs.
Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) live on the Svalbard archipelago of Norway in populations fragmented by natural barriers such as glaciers and open water. A recent study using a landscape genetics approach shows that winter sea ice acts as an important dispersal corridor for the reindeer, and this, combined with past and present anthropogenic drivers, strongly shapes the metapopulation structure. As sea ice continues to decline under global warming, reindeer populations are likely to become more genetically isolated and vulnerable to inbreeding or even extinction.
Although rapid warming in the Arctic decreases the amount of sea ice, it conversely increases the amount of shrubs. Recent research from over 500 km of shrub surveys and 19 years of moose (Alces alces) surveys in the North Slope of Alaska shows that tall-shrub habitat for moose is predicted to expand around river corridor networks. This will lead to an increase in structural connectivity of shrub patches, along with an increase in the total area of spatially connected patches. Moose habitat could more than double by 2099, leading to a range expansion for moose and greater connectivity of high quality habitat.
Like moose, freshwater fish in the Arctic have the potential to benefit from a warmer climate. An analysis of almost 500,000 lakes in the Canadian Arctic capable of supporting lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) predicts that populations will colonize northward as temperatures increase, and also increase in abundance. Over 30,000 lakes in the high Arctic are expected to become habitable for lake trout by 2050, an increase of 6.8% over the current number of habitable lakes. Although freshwater fish are limited in dispersal ability by the physical connectedness of lakes, increases in precipitation in the future could create flood conditions that make it easier for trout to colonize new lakes.
Resources
Peeters, B., Le Moullec, M., Raeymaekers, J.A., Marquez, J.F., Røed, K.H., Pedersen, Å.Ø., Veiberg, V., Loe, L.E. and Hansen, B.B. 2020. Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high Arctic ungulate metapopulation. Global Change Biology 26(4): 2028-2041.
Zhou, J., Tape, K.D., Prugh, L., Kofinas, G., Carroll, G. and Kielland, K. 2020. Enhanced shrub growth in the Arctic increases habitat connectivity for browsing herbivores. Global Change Biology 26(7): 3809-3920.
Campana, S.E., Casselman, J.M., Jones, C.M., Black, G., Barker, O., Evans, M., Guzzo, M.M., Kilada, R., Muir, A.M. and Perry, R. 2020. Arctic freshwater fish productivity and colonization increase with climate warming. Nature Climate Change 10(5): 428-433.
