Safeguarding pollination and other ecosystem services for the future

The value of ecosystem services is often hard to determine, but undoubtedly high in both fragmented and connected landscapes.  A new study in PLoS ONE by Giannini et al. takes a novel approach to calculating how ecosystem services may be impacted by climate change, and how conservation planners can determine focal areas for maintaining connectivity in both current and future conditions.  Using a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata) native to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, the authors conducted a connectivity analysis to determine how the species range would shift, and where key areas might be impacted in terms of ecosystem services.

The authors first modeled shifts in bee pollinator range due to climate change by combining distribution models with forecasted climate scenarios.  They then used the resulting distributions to perform habitat connectivity analysis based on graph theory, which allowed them to identify priority areas for conservation and restoration.  The study is the first of its kind to provide an integrated approach for identifying the best areas for conservation and restoration considering dispersal capabilities, habitat connectivity and changes in climate over time using ecosystem services as a study model.

The results not only highlight potential corridors for bees in South America that would safeguard against future climate change, but also provide a methodological framework to help planners identify key areas that will be important in the future.  Conservation needs, for bees at least, are time dependent: areas in the southern part of the bees’ range will be most important in the future, but areas in the northern part of their range are essential to maintain current connectivity.  As bees expand southward, they will bring their pollination services with them.

The framework provides a link between species connectivity modeling and species distribution modeling, resulting in the integration of habitat configuration and climate change effects.  This approach can be useful for planners to determine high priority corridors and other regions to focus on to maintain connectivity.  Supporting ecosystem services under climate change will be critical for maintaining ecosystem balance in the future.