The combination of geographical isolation, widespread deforestation, political uncertainty and incredible endemic biodiversity has always made Madagascar a conservation hotspot. It will continue to be so in the future, where climate change and human population expansion will alter the size, shape and distribution of native forests in the landscape. This impact will certainly extend to lemurs, which make up a large part of the island’s biodiversity and are considered the world’s most endangered vertebrates. Rising temperatures will likely force the current ranges of many lemur species to shift, and the question remains how effectively lemurs will be able to keep pace with these shifts in a fragmented landscape.
In new research posted by Ecology and Evolution, Brown and Yoder use ensemble species distribution models to look at the potential impact of climate change on lemur distribution. They compare current and projected areas of species richness, and predict that 60% of the 57 lemur species they examined will see their ranges contract in the next 70 years, in some cases by several hundred kilometers. Their results are even more dramatic given that they looked at only climate driven change, and did not include the additional impact of human-mediated habitat destruction. Their recommendation? Since suitable habitat isn’t currently available to link current and future distributions, it is imperative that forest corridors be established to protect not only lemurs but other endemic species likely to see range shifts as well.
Resources
Brown, J. L. and A. D. Yoder. 2015. Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change. Ecology and Evolution. DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1418.